West Virginia

Conference:	B12
Expected RPI:	27.0
Current RPI:	27
Expected SOS:	37
Current SOS:	37
Current Record:	24-10
Expected Record:	24-10
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	83
Expected OOC SOS:	241

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-10	27.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for West Virginia.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	N	65-88	L	0%
11-15	American (336.0)	Pat	H	98-64	W	100%
11-18	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	111-48	W	100%
11-20	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	91-62	W	100%
11-23	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	N	78-84	W	100%
11-24	UCF (84.0)	Amer	N	45-83	W	100%
11-26	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	N	83-79	W	100%
11-30	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	H	102-69	W	100%
12-5	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	H	68-61	W	100%
12-9	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	60-69	W	100%
12-20	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	77-38	W	100%
12-23	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	86-69	W	100%
12-29	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	79-85	W	100%
1-1	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	69-77	W	100%
1-6	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	H	89-76	W	100%
1-9	Baylor (68.0)	B12	H	57-54	W	100%
1-13	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	72-71	L	0%
1-15	Kansas (5.0)	B12	H	66-71	L	0%
1-20	Texas (51.0)	B12	H	86-51	W	100%
1-22	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	82-73	L	0%
1-27	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	H	76-83	L	0%
1-31	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	A	93-77	L	0%
2-3	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	H	89-51	W	100%
2-5	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	73-75	W	100%
2-10	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	H	85-88	L	0%
2-12	TCU (26.0)	B12	H	82-66	W	100%
2-17	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	77-69	L	0%
2-20	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	60-71	W	100%
2-24	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	H	85-70	W	100%
2-26	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	H	84-74	W	100%
3-3	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	87-79	L	0%
3-8	Baylor (68.0)	B12	N	78-65	W	100%
3-9	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	N	63-66	W	100%
3-10	Kansas (5.0)	B12	N	81-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

West Virginia's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

West Virginia's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against West Virginia.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
West Virginia	B12	26.46	26.46	68.92	68.92	10.01	10.01
Kansas	B12	5.37	5.37	77.42	77.42	2.95	2.95
Texas Tech	B12	5.28	5.28	76.67	76.67	2.81	2.81
Baylor	B12	5.22	5.22	60.71	60.71	1.12	1.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	3.97	3.97	58.06	58.06	0.64	0.64
Kansas St.	B12	3.94	3.94	70.97	70.97	1.65	1.65
Texas	B12	3.92	3.92	58.06	58.06	0.63	0.63
Iowa St.	B12	3.87	3.87	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
TCU	B12	3.85	3.85	66.67	66.67	1.28	1.28
Oklahoma	B12	3.85	3.85	62.07	62.07	0.93	0.93
Texas A&M	SEC	1.67	1.67	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Missouri	SEC	1.65	1.65	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Kentucky	SEC	1.63	1.63	69.70	69.70	0.64	0.64
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.54	1.54	25.81	25.81	-0.74	-0.74
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.52	1.52	16.13	16.13	-1.03	-1.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.52	1.52	37.93	37.93	-0.37	-0.37
American	Pat	1.52	1.52	20.69	20.69	-0.89	-0.89
Long Beach St.	BW	1.49	1.49	43.33	43.33	-0.20	-0.20
UCF	Amer	1.49	1.49	61.29	61.29	0.34	0.34
Virginia	ACC	1.49	1.49	96.88	96.88	1.40	1.40
Fordham	A10	1.47	1.47	30.00	30.00	-0.59	-0.59
Marist	MAAC	1.47	1.47	20.00	20.00	-0.88	-0.88
NJIT	ASun	1.47	1.47	44.44	44.44	-0.16	-0.16
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.26	0.26	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.25	0.25	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.21	0.21	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Arkansas	SEC	0.21	0.21	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.18	0.18	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.16	0.16	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Georgia	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Nevada	MWC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Army	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Maine	AE	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.07	0.07	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.04	0.04	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.04	0.04	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.04	0.04	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.04	0.04	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.04	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.04	0.04	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01